News
Lincecum tries to repeat in tight Cy race
After landslide win in '08, righty one of favorites for award
By Chris Haft / MLB.com
11/18/09 12:00 PM EST
SAN FRANCISCO -- When Tim Lincecum won last year's National League Cy Young Award by a sizable margin, Giants general manager Brian Sabean invoked the recent presidential election to describe his ace right-hander's triumph."In Obama-like fashion, it wasn't even close," Sabean said.
Don't expect another landslide this year.
Lincecum (15-7, 2.48 ERA, 261 strikeouts) has a legitimate shot to repeat as the NL Cy Young winner when results are announced Thursday. But his primary challengers amassed more victories, recorded comparable ERAs and thus would appear to be safer choices: St. Louis right-handers Adam Wainwright (19-8, 2.63 ERA, 212 strikeouts) and Chris Carpenter (17-4, 2.24 ERA, 144 strikeouts). Wainwright led the NL in victories and innings, Carpenter topped the league in ERA and winning percentage, while Lincecum set the pace in strikeouts. Based on those traditional measures, this Cy Young vote could be one of the closest since 1987, when Philadelphia reliever Steve Bedrosian captured the trophy with 57 points and nine first-place votes. He edged Chicago's Rick Sutcliffe (55 points, four first-place votes) and San Francisco's Rick Reuschel (54, eight). But the numbers beyond the numbers reinforce the argument for Lincecum, 25, who last year became the Giants' only Cy Young recipient other than Mike McCormick in 1967. Lincecum bested Wainwright and Carpenter in opponents' batting average, strikeouts per nine innings, strikeout-to-walk ratio and WAR (wins above replacement). "Across the board, he has a strong case," Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. "He'll get a lot of votes." Of course, no statistic can probe the thoughts of the 32 members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (two from each NL city) who cast Cy Young ballots. But if voting results from other award competitions are any indication, Lincecum should have no worse than a 50-50 chance of winning. Since baseball writers did the voting, it's instructive to consider how other baseball writers think. Perhaps the most significant evidence suggesting that Lincecum can repeat was Zack Greinke's victory in the AL Cy Young Award vote. Like Lincecum, Greinke, the Kansas City right-hander, finished with a relatively low win total (16). Earlier this month, a panel of 12 USA Today writers and editors made Lincecum their Cy Young pick, with Carpenter a close second. More recently, three of seven SI.com writers selected Carpenter as most deserving of the award, with Lincecum and Wainwright receiving two votes apiece. Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus put Lincecum atop his list, though he added that Carpenter and Wainwright were equally deserving. Lincecum also was the Cy Young choice among the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. Wainwright won the Players Choice Award as the league's outstanding pitcher in a vote of his peers. Lincecum earned the same honor in a poll of 31 Major League general managers and their assistants.Chris Haft is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
