SAN FRANCISCO -- The Giants and their followers eagerly await another big Election Day next Tuesday.
Actually, the votes already have been cast by the electorate -- two Baseball Writers' Association of America members from each National League city -- in the Cy Young Award balloting that will determine whether Tim Lincecum will become the second Giant to win the prestigious honor.
Unlike the presidential race, no advance or exit polling can be conducted to gauge Lincecum's fate. Writers are discouraged from publicly revealing whom they supported in awards voting. Conventional wisdom dictates that Lincecum, who finished 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA and a Major League-high 265 strikeouts, has no less than a 50-50 chance of winning. But he's among a field of strong candidates that includes New York's Johan Santana (16-7, 2.53 ERA), Arizona's Brandon Webb (22-7, 3.30), Milwaukee's CC Sabathia (11-2, 1.65 after joining the Brewers) and Philadelphia's Brad Lidge (41-for-41 in save chances).
Lincecum was named NL Pitcher of the Year in the Players Choice balloting and by The Sporting News, although those distinctions didn't necessarily reflect how Cy Young voters thought.
To peer into the writers' minds, check the opinions of the writers themselves. A sampling of Cy Young choices from baseball columnists around the nation showed a clear pro-Lincecum sentiment. Although none of these writers might have cast NL Cy Young votes, the musings of a few tend to mirror the consensus of many. Here's how 11 columnists viewed the award landscape, and Lincecum's place in it.
Paula Boivin, Arizona Republic: "Sue me. Tag me old school. Revoke my membership to the Secret Society of Sabermetricians if you must, but don't tell me Brandon Webb isn't Cy Young worthy.
"Don't call me Homer unless it's a nod to a certain Greek poet. Watching Webb face the Colorado Rockies on Saturday night made me wonder if this current trend of devaluing a pitcher's win total could erroneously put the ace's chance for the award in jeopardy.
"... Twenty-two victories is a perfect reason Webb should win his second Cy Young in the past three years. While others will argue for San Francisco's Tim Lincecum's superior ERA ... and strikeout total ..., Webb's ability to gauge his team's temperature and give it exactly what it needs is more important than recording an endless stream of strikeouts.
"This is not a knock against Lincecum, who's had a phenomenal season for a lousy team. If Webb is No. 1, than Lincecum is 1A. But to say Lincecum is more worthy because he would have won more games if his team had played better is dabbling in hypotheticals."
Jon Heyman, SI.com: "Since [the Cy Young] award should be more closely tied to overall numbers and less to which teams make it to October, I'll give Santana an ever-so-slight edge over Sabathia, who matched Santana's late-year heroics and led his team into October, too.
"In this remarkable year of pitching performances in the National League (what's odd is that the NL produced better individual hitting performances than the AL, as well), at least five worthy candidates will likely dot different ballots, including tiny Giants wunderkind Tim Lincecum, 22-game winner Brandon Webb and perfect shutdown closer Brad Lidge. I'd take Santana and Sabathia 1-2, but I couldn't really argue against any of the other picks, either."
Bob Klapisch, Bergen Record (picked Lincecum): "Another ballot that could've (and perhaps should've) been decided by a flip of the coin. No doubt Johan Santana had a better overall season, leading the National League in innings and ERA and not losing a game after June 28. But the Giants' righty was more devastating and tougher to hit.
"Just look at the gap between Lincecum and Santana in strikeouts (265 to 206) and the opponents' batting average (.221 to .232). Lincecum also allowed 12 fewer home runs than the Mets' ace (11 to 23).
"It's true Santana's numbers were compiled under extreme pressure -- and he shut out the Marlins in a must-win setting ... on a torn-up knee. But Lincecum blew away the NL with an awful team behind him, and with nothing at stake."
Scott Miller, CBS Sportsline (picked Lincecum): "Had the bullpen not blown five saves he likely would have had at least two or three more wins (you can't guarantee he would have won all five of those games). He led the Majors in strikeouts, led the NL in winning percentage and his opponents batting average (.221) led the NL and ranked second in the Majors. You can make a strong case for the Mets' Johan Santana -- I agonized over the final 48 hours on this one, and I sure wish CC Sabathia had made just a few more NL starts because it's a crime that he'll get no award -- but nobody was more dominant than Lincecum."
Jeff Passan, Yahoo! Sports: "In nearly every category that indicates dominance from a pitcher, Lincecum leads Webb. Earned-run average. Batting average against. Opponent OPS [on-base plus slugging percentage]. Strikeouts. Home runs allowed ...
"I have no idea how this year's NL Cy Young voting will turn out. ... Maybe Webb's wins win out. Perhaps Sabathia's grand 3 1/2-month turn, and the Brewers' likely playoff appearance, puts him on top. If the voters want to get it right, though -- if they want to accept the past for what it was and move on by using the right kind of analysis, much like the majority of teams around the game have -- then Lincecum is the guy."
"Pizza Cutter," Hardball Times (polled 18 writers, bloggers and friends, 14 of whom voted for Lincecum): "Santana led the NL in VORP [value over replacement player] and WPA/LI [win probability added/leverage index] (with Lincecum second), while Lincecum led in WPA (with Johan in second) and FIP [fielding independent pitching]. Even pretending that Sabathia was a National Leaguer the whole year, he still finishes behind both Santana and Lincecum in terms of stats.
"... Then there's the issue of Brandon Webb and his 22 wins. I don't deny that the man had a very good season on the mound, but is it really that hard to explain why wins aren't a good barometer of performance? Really?"
Phil Rogers, Chicago Tribune (picked Santana): "Santana didn't dominate the NL the way many predicted, but his 2.17 ERA after the All-Star break was enough to lower his overall ERA to 2.54, the best in the league. His 16 wins included a brilliant performance down the stretch and easily could have been 20 if the Mets had had a better bullpen. There were other strong candidates, including Phillies closer Lidge, but this three-player ballot lists Tim Lincecum second and Brandon Webb third."
Jim Salisbury, Philadelphia Inquirer: "This one is going down to the wire. ... Santana and Lincecum were hurt by their bullpens. The Mets blew seven of Santana's leads. The Giants squandered five of Lincecum's. Tough call here, but we'll go with Lincecum."
John Shea, San Francisco Chronicle: "There's no wrong pick. Voting members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America can make a case for Lincecum, Webb or Santana, but considering how Lincecum dominated teams and generated excitement as if he were the second coming of a young Vida Blue or Fernando Valenzeula, and did it on a team that dropped from contention, we're leaning his way."
Jayson Stark, ESPN: "Like everyone else who has watched Sabathia pitch, I'd love to figure out a way to give him some kind of award. But this is the 'National League Cy Young,' not the 'Multi-League Cy Young' or the "Final 2 3/4-Months of the Year Cy Young." So I think this award should go to the pitcher who has outperformed all his National League competition for the entire season, not just the portion of the season in which Sabathia has been in his league. And if you look seriously at the big picture -- not just win totals or the last two months -- I believe that pitcher is Tim Lincecum."
Larry Stone, Seattle Times: "In his first full season in the Majors, at the tender age of 24, Lincecum is the Cy Young Award winner.
"That's my call, and it's no hometown bouquet. Lincecum earned it, even though the competition for the award is incredibly stiff.
"... There would be little argument if the Giants' bullpen had saved five of the leads he handed them that were instead squandered. Webb had just one blown lead to mar his record."